ACP - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial driver of fire weather in Australia, with the correlation between ENSO and Australian fire weather having intensified over the past 2 decades. However, the underlying causes for this change have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we utilize reanalysis datasets and numerical model simulations to demonstrate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could potentially modulate the ENSO–Australian fire weather relationship. The correlation between ENSO and the Australian Fire Weather Index (FWI) increases from 0.17 to 0.70 as the AMO transitions from its negative to positive phase. This strengthening effect can be attributed to atmospheric teleconnection mechanisms. Specifically, the positive AMO phase, characterized by warming in the northern and tropical Atlantic, generates Rossby wave trains, leading to high-pressure systems over Australia. Consequently, local temperature and wind speed increase, while precipitation decreases. This signal, superimposed on ENSO, serves to amplify the ENSO effect on Australian fire weather.

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20th Century Reanalysis: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

ACP - Relations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia

Pacific Mean-State Control of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation–El Niño Relationship in: Journal of Climate Volume 33 Issue 10 (2020)

Atmosphere, Free Full-Text

Modulation of the Relationship between ENSO and Its Combination Mode by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in: Journal of Climate Volume 33 Issue 11 (2020)

Frontiers Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Relation of ENSO With the Precipitation in the Central-Western Indian Ocean

Influence of local scale and oceanic teleconnections on regional fire danger and wildfire trends - ScienceDirect

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Attribution of Observed Periodicity in Extreme Weather Events in Eastern North America - Walsh - 2022 - Earth and Space Science - Wiley Online Library

Modulation of the Relationship between ENSO and Its Combination Mode by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in: Journal of Climate Volume 33 Issue 11 (2020)

Global Fire Forecasts Using Both Large‐Scale Climate Indices and Local Meteorological Parameters - Shen - 2019 - Global Biogeochemical Cycles - Wiley Online Library

PDF) Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Modulates the Relationship Between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Fire Weather in Australia